Macroeconomic evolution after a shock: the role for ...nancial intermediation

An overlapping generations model with two production factors and two types of agents is considered in presence of ...nancial intermediation. The research focuses at the analysis of the consequences of a suddain negative production shock on a ...nancial intermediation capacities and consequently on the economy as a whole. The model exhibits a property of the ”chain reaction” when a single macroeconomic shock can lead to the exhaustion of credit resources and the bankruptcy of the whole banking system. To maintain the capability of the system to recover a regulatory intervention is needed even in presence of the state guarantees on agents’ deposits in the banks (workout incentives). Comparison with a pure market economy shows, that a system with properly regulated intermediation provides intertemporal smoothing of shocks, and the social losses induced by the shock are below those in the market economy.